Options Gambling (Hope)

A love for gambling didn’t start in a trading account. It started years ago while living in 29 Palms, when a hard-earned paycheck would sometimes fuel a long drive through the Mojave National Preserve. Empty desert roads, open sky, and the anticipation that built mile by mile on the way to Primm Valley, or if enough cash available, Las Vegas. The destination wasn’t just the casinos—it was the thrill of risk itself. Money put on the line, odds clearly stacked, and the quiet understanding that the house usually wins. Yet the experience was worth it, because risk has a way of making things feel alive.

Buying options feel a lot like that same drive toward the Nevada border. Buying a call/put isn’t about slow, methodical accumulation—it’s a bet that something dramatic will happen, and it will happen fast. Time is never on the buyer’s side. Theta decay quietly eats away at the option’s value every single day, even if the stock doesn’t move against you. The clock is always ticking, and unlike owning shares, waiting is not a neutral position. When price stalls, the option still loses.

That’s why call/put options often resemble lottery tickets or gambling (It’s no exaggeration; roughly 80% of call/put options expire worthless). Most buyers are betting on a long shot, and timing has to be perfect for a win.

 The upside looks incredible on paper—small premium, massive potential payoff—but the probability of success is low. Most calls and puts expire worthless, not because the idea was bad, but because timing had to be perfect. Direction, magnitude, and speed all have to align before expiration. Miss one variable, and the trade fails. That isn’t investing in the traditional sense; it’s controlled speculation with defined odds.

Still, not all gambling is foolish. Some risks are worth taking, especially when the downside is known and accepted upfront. Strategic call/put buying can make sense in specific situations—high conviction setups, asymmetric opportunities, or moments when the reward truly outweighs the loss. No guts, no glory isn’t a trading plan, but it does capture a truth: growth rarely comes from playing it safe all the time. The key is knowing when a risk is reckless… and when it’s a calculated bet worth placing.

Gambling is fine when the odds are known and the loss is affordable. The danger isn’t the long shot but pretending it isn’t one.

 

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